The Impact of Global Geopolitical Tensions, Global Market Volatility, and World Oil Prices on LQ45 Stock Performance

Ahmad Sidiq

doi:10.68376/ECOTOUR.v2.i3.a45

Authors

Ahmad Sidiq Department of Accounting, STIE Atma Bhakti, Surakarta, Central Java, Indonesia Author

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.68376/ECOTOUR.v2.i3.a45

Keywords:

Geopolitical Risk, Global Market Volatility, World Oil Prices, LQ45 Index

Abstract

Global political conflicts are now a major outside force that affects how financial markets stay stable. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, along with political unrest in the Middle East, changes in global financial markets, and shifts in oil prices around the world have made it more challenging to predict developments in financial markets worldwide, including those in Indonesia. This study investigates how geopolitical uncertainty, international market volatility, and global crude oil prices influence the LQ45 Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). A quantitative explanatory method was used, based on 588 daily records collected from July 26, 2023, to February 6, 2026. Global geopolitical risk was measured using the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index.Global market volatility was tracked through the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). The global oil price variable was represented by the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. Stock market performance was shown by the daily returns of the LQ45 Index. Following the assumption tests, multiple linear regression was conducted. The results revealed that geopolitical risk did not significantly affect the LQ45 Index, while global market volatility and oil prices had significant effects on stock returns. At the same time, the three independent variables have a significant impact on the LQ45 Index. The findings support the Efficient Market Hypothesis and Modern Portfolio Theory, providing insights for investors and policymakers in managing global financial uncertainty.

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